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October 29, 2004
So says Merrill Lynch analysts who follow the market closely. ThinkSecret.com has all the details, but here’s the important graf on video:
Milunovich dismisses the notion that a video iPod may follow after a photo iPod, echoing previous sentiments from Apple executives. “In our discussions with management about usage patterns, it is clear that a Video iPod (for playing movies) gets the thumbs down,” he writes. Apple simply doesn’t see a strong a device that would require users to view a movie on a small screen for an extended period of time.
Something tells me this isn’t a dead issue yet. If other vendors are successful, look for a change of heart. It’s probably prudent to let other companies prove the market and see what develops.
Via Build Your Own PVR, XBMC 1.1 has been released with a lot of cool new features. XBMC is a media center player for the XBox that requires some elbow grease to get setup, but is a really nice way to stream video and audio out to your television.
Additional Info:
Yesterday I mentioned a set of articles on DRM, including Due Diligence’s three laws of DRM. Here’s his three laws again:
- Copy protection DRM always destroys end user value, in both convenience and robustness. When you see DRM in a business plan or analysis, it is always there to benefit someone other than the end user. Find out who, it will indicate where power lies in a content value chain.
- The mere presence of DRM indicates a failure to deliver end user value. If the information object were to lose value when extracted from the bundle or service from it was derived, DRM would not be felt necessary. Therefore the presence of DRM suggests a vendor that is behind the curve, failing to find a new value to deliver as their chokepoint disappears in the digital world.
- DRM almost always means there is trouble afoot for aggregators (’infomediaries’). If it’s an aggregator inserting the DRM, their value added is in question. If it’s information originators mandating DRM, then they feel they can damage the aggregator’s value with impunity, and will likely try to drive end users’ attention to themselves.
I won’t rehash yesterday’s article, but I pointed out that bad implementations of DRM is a more accurate descriptor particularly when it tramples of the rights of people who legally own copyrighted material. Well, PVRBlog has example #1A of bad DRM and it obeys Tim Oren’s three laws perfectly. Just as importantly as the article on PVRBlog is the comments from users, who are generally pro-Tivo for the most part.
Tivo’s in a hard spot so I can’t blame them too much for their decision since litigation against a deep pocket company is counter-productive to them getting critical mass for their business. However, Due Diligence once again is proven correct, and if there is any question about Tivo’s relationship with content providers, see Rule #3. They are getting squeezed like toothpaste.
October 28, 2004
I’ve added a new resource for people researching products called the TVHarmony Product Tracker. It includes the latest reviews, news items, interesting links, and specs for all the various products that I’ve run across and found interesting, and I’m sure I’ll be adding a lot more products to the mix as the weeks go by. I plan on updating it on a weekly basis to keep it fresh and fill in more details.
At this point, I should also note that if you click through many of the links in the “street price” section, TVHarmony gets a tiny commission that will go towards maintaining this website. Don’t feel obligated to purchase through any of the links, but if you do some comparison shopping and still find the price comparable, I always appreciate the support.
I was very interested in Due Diligence’s reaction to Charlie Demerjian’s article, Prepare to get screwed by digital rights management. Tim Oren, the author of Due Diligence, always has interesting things to say, and he didn’t disappoint with these bullet points:
- Copy protection DRM always destroys end user value, in both convenience and robustness. When you see DRM in a business plan or analysis, it is always there to benefit someone other than the end user. Find out who, it will indicate where power lies in a content value chain.
- The mere presence of DRM indicates a failure to deliver end user value. If the information object were to lose value when extracted from the bundle or service from it was derived, DRM would not be felt necessary. Therefore the presence of DRM suggests a vendor that is behind the curve, failing to find a new value to deliver as their chokepoint disappears in the digital world.
- DRM almost always means there is trouble afoot for aggregators (’infomediaries’). If it’s an aggregator inserting the DRM, their value added is in question. If it’s information originators mandating DRM, then they feel they can damage the aggregator’s value with impunity, and will likely try to drive end users’ attention to themselves.
(more…)
Blockbuster, who has painted a big red bullseye on NetFlix by offering a competitive service, has introduced a new distribution system which should make getting DVDs in the mail faster. NetFlix competitors have have been popping up all over lately with Walmart, Blockbuster, and soon likely Amazon, all vying to get into NetFlix’s turf. Blockbuster, flipping through it’s own list of competitive advantages, may have found a way to convince people to switch services.
I’ve been a NetFlix subscriber for a couple of years now, and I’m in love with the service. Over time, I’m sure I lost more money in movie late fees than I did when the Internet bubble popped (although it would be close call), and NetFlix has a slick service that avoids those fees and reliably sends you three movies at a time via the mail.
The downside for some people is the lag between sending in a movie that has been viewed and receiving a new one. It can take 4-5 days, even in my case as I’m less than 100 miles away from a distribution center. For those people in GodKnowsWhere, Alaska, I’m sure it may take a little longer.
Up until now, the competing factors have been price and name brand, both of which has been handled pretty well by NetFlix. Blockbuster is trying to shake things up a little and is doing a smart move here by using it’s advantage of having 1000’s of stores and using them as ad hoc distribution centers. We’ll see how it all plays out, but if they are successful, it could cut the time down consirably. Not to disparage all local Blockbuster employees, but I’ve run across a few that have been less than stellar, so we’ll see if indeed they are capable of achieving error free, faster results.
At the end of the day, Video on Demand may make this a quaint old debate like the merits of 8-Track vs. cassette, but for now, it will be interesting to see how the market changes.
(Hat Tip: TVPredictions.com)
Extremetech has review of the new DirecTV HDTV Tivo from Hughes, and the results were mixed. In particular, they had this problem:
The TiVo automatically senses when an HDMI cable is plugged in, and disables the component output. But I ran into a major problem when I tried to connect from the HDMI port to the DVI input on my Panasonic plasma. Nothing came out. I swapped cables, then connections, and even tried it with my DVI-enabled LCD desktop monitor. Nothing.
DirecTV’s fine technical support had the answer—but it wasn’t good. I had apparently won the home game of HDMI roulette: Somewhere between 10% and 15% of all HD DVRs made by Hughes ship with a bad HDMI port. Lucky me. After briefly trying to convince me to use component, DirecTV offered to send me a replacement. One small problem though. They still haven’t figured out how to fix the HDMI port problem, which means another turn of the wheel. As of this writing I haven’t received the replacement yet, but I’ve got a 15% chance of it being bad too. Isn’t it great when you can replace your QA department with your customers? Thanks Hughes and DirecTV!
Even if you do get a good HDMI port, early returns on web discussion boards are not positive. The port seems fragile, with many users reporting color loss and other problems.
The review had some positive things to say, but if I needed to connect via HDMI, I’d probably wait a little to get it all sorted out.
Additional Info:
TVHarmony Product Tracker: Hughes HR10-250 HDTV
October 27, 2004
Brad Nelson doesn’t need a Tivo tattoo to prove his loyalty to the company.
He has 7 Tivos connected to a single TV which can record 14 programs simultaneously. He’s a big hockey fan, apparently, and records practically every game that’s available. The kicker is the computer program he wrote to parse through the box scores to identify which game was most exciting, so when he’s ready to watch a game, he can grab the best one.
I can’t tell if Tivo is fueling his hobby of hockey or hockey is fueling his hobby for Tivo. Regardless, Tivo needs more guys like Brad Nelson.
Sales of Scientific Atlanta DVRs are way up this quarter, according to this article from AP. They shipped 397,000 DVRs the quarter ending Oct 1, which is typically a slow quarter for consumer electronics. In comparison, Tivo shipped 288,000 units in their quarter ending July 31st.
With a two month lag between the two datasets, it’s not an accurate comparison but it goes to show there is more than one pony in the race to gain marketshare.
(Hat Tip: TVPredictions.com)
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